Mar 4, 2023; Colorado Springs, Colorado, USA; Air Force Falcons guard Carter Murphy (4) controls the ball as San Jose State Spartans guard Omari Moore (10) guards in the second half at Clune Arena. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
The Mountain West Tournament gets going this afternoon as the No. 10 Air Force Falcons take on the No. 7 UNLV Runnin’ Rebels in the first round. Air Force has just one win in its last eight games against the Runnin’ Rebels, though the Falcons only lost by one point just a couple of weeks ago.
With neither team in line for an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament, the only hope for either to make the big dance is winning the Mountain West Championship. Needless to say, this is an important matchup.
UNLV is a decent favorite, though I see value in backing the Falcons for a few key reasons. Let’s check out the odds before I explain what they are.
Air Force vs. UNLV Odds, Spread, and Total
Air Force vs. UNLV Prediction and Pick
UNLV is excellent at one thing and one thing only: forcing turnovers. The Runnin’ Rebels rank third nationally in turnover rate (25%), so Air Force needs to protect the ball. If the Falcons can prioritize ball security though, there’s not much else UNLV can do successfully.
Do you like scoring? Well, the Runnin’ Rebels are 262nd in effective field goal percentage (48.9%). What about defense? Not that either, as they’re 271st in opponent effective field goal percentage (52.2%). Maybe rebounding? Sorry pal, UNLV is outside of the top 200 in both offensive AND defensive rebounding.
Air Force, on the other hand, has the 24th-highest effective field goal percentage (54.5%) in the country alongside a defense that ranks seventh in opponent three-point shooting percentage (29%). The Falcons play at one of basketball’s slowest paces, making the task of covering a big spread even more difficult.
6.5 is just too many points for a matchup that Air Force has historically fared well in. The Falcons are 13-3 against the spread (ATS) in their last 16 games against UNLV. They’re strong in this spot too, posting a 5-3 ATS mark in their last eight as underdogs.
The Runnin’ Rebels, meanwhile, are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 contests as favorites. Trust Air Force’s advantages to help keep this one close, and the Falcons may even win outright.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
