Dec 17, 2022; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Wyoming Cowboys guard Hunter Maldonado (24) defends Dayton Flyers forward Toumani Camara (2) during the first half at United Center. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-USA TODAY Sports
The Dayton Flyers started off rolling though the Atlantic 10, like they were expected to. They won four straight to begin A10 play, all by double-digits, but then on Friday, they ran up against VCU and got dropped to 4-1 in conference play with a 63-62 loss. Now, the Flyers are 12-6 overall heading into their second matchup of the season with 9-9 Davidson. The Wildcats just lost a two-point game to George Mason on the road and last time they played Dayton, got pounded, 69-55 on New Year’s Eve.
Will Davidson be able to make this one close or pull the upset on the road tonight, or will Dayton get another blowout win in conference play? Let’s take a look at the odds.
The Dayton Flyers isn’t the high-flying offense that people got to know them for when Obi Toppin was on campus a few years ago. No, this team plays slow and methodical and is one of the best defensive units in the entire country. The Flyers are 9th in defensive efficiency and 325th in possessions per game. They’re also fifth in opponent field goal percentage and sixth in opponent three-point percentage. That’s bad news for Davidson who has a tough time scoring against any defense, let alone one of the best in the country. The Wildcats are shooting 31.5% from deep this year, that’s good for 301st.
Last time these two met, Davidson was bombs away from deep and it didn’t pay off. They finished the game 4/21 from three and Foster Loyer had 12 points on 4/14 shooting. If Loyer is shut down again, then the Wildcats truly have no shot.
DaRon Holmes II ended with 32 for Dayton and he shot it 11/14 from the field. As a team the Flyers shot 44.7% from the floor and 46.2% from three. It took a perfect storm of great shooting for Dayton and a terribly off night for Davidson to get to a 14-point margin, I just can’t trust a team that plays as slow as Dayton to regularly blow teams out and cover double digit spreads. I also can’t trust Davidson cause they don’t reliably shoot the ball. Instead, I’ll take the under, playing on defense to prevail in this one.
Under 128.5
-105
over/under
Davidson Wildcats @ Dayton Flyers
01/17 6:00 PM
BetMGM
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