Fresno State vs. Colorado State prediction and odds for Mountain West Tournament first round

Colorado State didn’t have the success that it had in 2022 when it made the NCAA Tournament as a No. 11 seed, but it will try to capture some March magic in the Mountain West Conference tournament, tipping off on Wednesday.

The Rams play Fresno State in the first round of the Mountain West tournament on Wednesday afternoon, a matchup that Colorado State won both times in the regular season. In the most recent meeting, Colorado State rallied from down seven with less than two minutes left to win on the road, how will this one go down?

First let’s check out the odds:

Fresno State vs. Colorado State odds, spread and total

Fresno State vs. Colorado State prediction and pick

Colorado State stole the most recent meeting from Fresno State in what has been a frustrating season for the Bulldogs, blowing a cover as 1.5-point home favorites.

However, I like their chances of staying within a possession on a neutral floor on Wednesday afternoon.

Fresno State is 327th in adjusted tempo this season, making each possession very valuable. That’s particularly impactful because Colorado State has the sixth lowest offensive rebounding percentage in the country, so there will be limited chances for the Rams to score given Fresno State’s ability to slow the game down.

While Colorado State’s offense has been firing, 10th in effective field goal percentage since Feb. 1, the defense has taken a step back, 270th in effective field goal percentage allowed. The team is going to struggle to pull away from the Bulldogs given their inability to get stops and the limited amount of possessions.

Fresno State is live in the tournament opener, but I’m eyeing the points as extra valuable in this type of setting, give me the underdog at anything over a bucket.

PICK: Fresno State +3

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.