Heat vs. Pistons prediction and odds for Sunday, March 19 (Value on total)


Miami Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-USA TODAY Sports

Miami Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-USA TODAY Sports

The Miami Heat are fresh off a bad loss to Chicago on Saturday night, and they’ll look to bounce back against the worst team in the NBA, the Detroit Pistons, on Sunday.

Detroit has just 16 wins on the season, and the team is without several key rotation pieces in Alec Burks, Hamidou Diallo, Isaiah Stewart and Bojan Bogdanovice in this game.

With so many young guys getting run for Detroit, the team is set as a massive underdog at home against Miami.

The Heat need a win, as they’ve fallen two games behind the Brooklyn Nets for the No. 6 seed in the East. If the team wants to avoid the play-in tournament, it has to finish strong over these next few weeks.

Here’s a look at the latest odds and my best bet for this game:

Heat vs. Pistons odds, spread and total

Miami Heat @ Detroit Pistons | Current Best Odds


To Win


Miami Heat

Detroit Pistons

Heat vs. Pistons prediction and pick

The Heat are usually one of the best defensive teams in the NBA under head coach Erik Spoelstra, but things have changed in the second half of this season.

The Heat, who are No. 8 in the league in defensive rating on the season, are just 25th in that statistic since the All-Star break, allowing over 117 points per 100 possessions.

That hasn’t led to extremely high-scoring games since the team plays at a slow pace, but I think it could help carry Sunday’s game with Detroit OVER this total of 218.

The Pistons are a terrible team offensively and defensively, but they could find some easier baskets against a Miami team on the second night of a back-to-back.

Not only that, but the Pistons have allowed 117 or more points in four of their last six games. That means they may need to put up around 105 points to help push this game over.

The Heat need a bounce back after a bad loss to Chicago on Saturday, so I wouldn’t be shocked to see them come out strong against this weak Detroit team.

It’s rare that I recommend a Heat OVER, but I think this is the perfect storm.

Miami Heat

Detroit Pistons


ML: -450

DET +9.5, O/U 218.5

ML: +350

Consensus betting odds

Peter Dewey

  • Pick & odds as of March 19, 2023, 9:47 AM



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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.