What better way to start the week than five picks for a four-game NBA slate?
That’s what we have in today’s NBA best bets column, and we’re looking at three plays in the New York Knicks’ matchup with the Boston Celtics alone.
Three player props, one total and one side with Eastern Conference playoff standings on the line. Welcome to it:
NBA best bets record to date
- NBA best bets record for 2022-23 season: 191-164-1 (+6.5359 units)
NBA best bets today
- Joel Embiid UNDER 31.5 Points (-105)
- Boston Celtics Moneyline (-140) vs. New York Knicks
- Julius Randle OVER 8.5 Rebounds (-130)
- RJ Barrett OVER 17.5 Points (-115)
- Orlando Magic-New Orleans Pelicans UNDER 228 (-110)
Joel Embiid UNDER 31.5 Points (-105)
Miami Heat @ Philadelphia 76ers
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Today at 6:00 PM
Odds last updated
February 27th, 2023, at 2:06 pm
Joel Embiid is having a terrific season, but he’s a fade candidate against the Miami Heat, a team that he has failed to score 32 or more points against in eight of his last nine games against them.
Miami is a dominant defense, ranking fifth in the NBA, and it’s also 28th in pace, which means this could end up being a low-scoring affair.
Bam Adebayo is one of the best defensive big men in the NBA, and he held Embiid under this number in four straight games in the playoffs last season. I’ll trust him to keep up that play on Monday night.
Boston Celtics Moneyline (-140) vs. New York Knicks
Boston Celtics @ New York Knicks | Current Best Odds
To Win
Total
This is going to seem like a contrarian play because my next two picks are Knicks props, but the Boston Celtics have been too good all season long, even without Jaylen Brown, to not take them at this price.
Boston is 9-2 in the games Brown has missed this season, and one of those losses came against Milwaukee with Jayson Tatum out as well.
The Knicks have struggled at home this season, going just 13-16-3 against the spread. Not only that, but the Knicks don’t have a ton of 3-point shooting to keep up with Boston.
It took overtime and an all-world performance from Julius Randle to beat the Celtics earlier this season, I think Boston is undervalued here.
Julius Randle OVER 8.5 Rebounds (-130)
Boston Celtics @ New York Knicks
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Today at 6:30 PM
Odds last updated
February 27th, 2023, at 2:09 pm
Julius Randle’s rebounds prop has finally reached a point where I’m ready to go back to taking the OVER.
Randle had a renaissance on the glass with Mitchell Robinson out, but now that he’s back he’s failed to clear this line in back-to-back games.
Still, Randle is averaging 10.6 boards per game on the season, and he picked up nine against Boston in their last meeting. Since Dec. 27, Randle has nine or more boards in 25 of his 28 games. Go OVER tonight.
RJ Barrett OVER 17.5 Points (-115)
Boston Celtics @ New York Knicks
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Today at 6:30 PM
Odds last updated
February 27th, 2023, at 2:09 pm
RJ Barrett has come up with a lot of clutch shots against the Celtics in his career, and he may be getting back on track after a 25-point game against New Orleans on Saturday.
RJ is averaging 19.7 points per game this season, and he’s still seeing plenty of volume since returning from a hand injury, taking 16.1 shots per game over his last 20 games.
If this turns into a shootout, Barrett should benefit, and he’s been the leader on offense when the Knicks go to their bench unit. As long as he sees the touches, RJ should clear 17.5 points for the second straight game.
Orlando Magic-New Orleans Pelicans UNDER 228 (-110)
Orlando Magic @ New Orleans Pelicans | Current Best Odds
To Win
Total
The New Orleans Pelicans and Orlando Magic are both in the bottom half of the league in offensive rating this season, clocking in at No. 18 (NOLA) and at No. 25 (ORL).
Even though they have been solid against the spread on road this season, the Magic are a much worse offense when away from the Amway Center this season. Orlando’s offensive rating on the season is 111.2, but it drops to 108.4 on the road.
That leads me to the UNDER in this game, as both teams have been falling short of 228 points relatively routinely over their last few games. The Pelicans have fallen short of this total in six of their last seven, and Orlando isn’t much better, going UNDER 228 points in five of its last seven.
Not only that, but the UNDER is also 16-12-2 in Orlando’s road games. I expect a bit of a slugfest in New Orleans tonight.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
