Dec 17, 2022; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Purdue Boilermakers guard Braden Smith (3) and Davidson Wildcats guard Foster Loyer (0) go for a loose ball while defends in the first half at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports
The Atlantic 10 tournament second round tips off Wednesday afternoon with a battle between St. Bonaventure and Davidson.
Davidson won the lone meeting between these two teams, 74-61 at home, but now travel to the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York to try and complete a season sweep and end the Bonnies season.
Both teams went under .500 in league play, but can they jump start a conference tournament run on Wednesday with a strong second round showing? Here are the odds for the Wednesday afternoon matchup:
St. Bonaventure vs. Davidson odds, spread and total
St. Bonaventure vs. Davidson prediction and pick
It’s hard not to like the Davidson side given the state of the Bonnies defense. The team is bottom third nationally in both defensive rebounding rate and two-point defense since Feb. 1 and will struggle to match the offensive efficiency of the Wildcats, who are 75th in effective field goal percentage in that time span.
The defense also sends opponents to the free throw line at the second highest rate in the A-10 and Davidson is the best team in the conference at the charity stripe.
Further, St. Bonaventure’s offense is brutal, bottom five in key categories including effective field goal percentage, free throw rate and turnover percentage.
The Wildcats are the more reliable offense and I trust their team on a neutral floor far more than the undisciplined Bonnies. Per Haslametrics away from home metrics, which compares the team’s play from home to road, Davidson is the 12th best by that metric, actually improving its play away from home. Meanwhile, St. Bonaventure is 344th in that rating.
I’ll take the small favorite and the more reliable team to cover the spread.
PICK: Davidson -3
