The Players Championship Hole-in-One odds (Will someone ace the Island Green?)

TPC Sawgrass, which hosts this week’s Players Championship, is home to arguably one of the most famous and iconic holes in golf: The Island Green.

The hole is daunting from a yardage perspective, usually playing anywhere from 125-145 yards, but it’s the fact if you miss the green at all, you’re in the water.

Will anyone manage to record a hole-in-one on it this year? Or, what about a hole-in-one on one of the other Par 3 holes?

Let’s take a look at the odds of that happening and then I’ll break down which way I’m betting it.

The Players Championship hole-in-one odds

The Players Championship 17th hole hole-in-one odds

The Players Championship hole-in-one history

Here is the list of hole-in-ones at TPC Sawgrass at the Players Championship:

• Jim Gallagher – 1986 (Hole 3)
• Brad Fabel – 1986 (Hole 17)
• Brian Claar – 1991 (Hole 17)
• Chip Beck – 1992 (Hole 13)
• Gary Hallberg – 1994 (Hole 8)
• Russ Cochran – 1994 (Hole 3)
• Phil Mickelson – 1995 (Hole 13)
• Jay Don Blake – 1996 (Hole 13)
• Fred Couples – 1997 (Hole 17)
• Mark Brooks – 1997 (Hole 8)
• Bob Friend – 1999 (Hole 8)
• Joey Sindelar – 1999 (Hole 17)
• Naomichi Ozaki – 2000 (Hole 8)
• Ted Tryba – 2000 (Hole 8)
• Paul Azinger – 2000 (Hole 17)
• Chris DiMarco – 2001 (Hole 3)
• Craig Stadler – 2002 (Hole 13)
• Miguel Angel Jimenez – 2002 (Hole 17)
• Jose Maria Olazabal – 2004 (Hole 13)
• Justin Leonard – 2006 (Hole 13)
• Henrick Stenson – 2006 (Hole 13)
• Fred Couples – 2006 (Hole 13)
• Robert Garrigus – 2008 (Hole 13)
• Chris Stroud – 2013 (Hole 13)
• Michael Thompson – 2013 (Hole 8)
• Will Wilcock – 2016 (Hole 17)
• Ryan Moore – 2019 (Hole 17)
• Sungjae Im – 2019 (Hole 13)
• Seamus Power – 2019 (Hole 3)
• Brendon Todd – 2021 (Hole 8)
• Viktor Hovland – 2022 (Hole 8)
• Shane Lowry – 2022 (Hole 17)

There have been plenty of hole-in-ones over recent years, but that doesn’t mean the “yes” intrinsically has betting value. In fact, over the past 10 editions of the event, a hole-in-one has only occurred at five of them. That means the “yes” would have only cashed 50% of the time of the past 10 years.

With that being said, there may be value in betting it to happen on hole 17 specifically at +240. There have only been 12 combined hole-in-ones in the history of the event on holes No. 3 and 8.

So, what could be a fun strategy is to bet the “No hole-in-one” at almost +200, but then the “yes hole-in-one at Hole. 17” as a hedge. That way, we can cheer for an ace at the famous Island green, but if one doesn’t happen, we may still be a winner if we don’t see one at either of the three other par 3s.

Our main concern, which would be a disastrous result, would be an ace at the No. 13 hole, which has seen 12 total hole-in-ones over the years, and none at No. 17.

Regardless, I’m willing to have some fun with this bet. Let’s go for it.

–

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.