TPC Sawgrass, which hosts this week’s Players Championship, is home to arguably one of the most famous and iconic holes in golf: The Island Green.
The hole is daunting from a yardage perspective, usually playing anywhere from 125-145 yards, but it’s the fact if you miss the green at all, you’re in the water.
Will anyone manage to record a hole-in-one on it this year? Or, what about a hole-in-one on one of the other Par 3 holes?
Let’s take a look at the odds of that happening and then I’ll break down which way I’m betting it.
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The Players Championship hole-in-one odds
The Players Championship 17th hole hole-in-one odds
The Players Championship hole-in-one history
Here is the list of hole-in-ones at TPC Sawgrass at the Players Championship:
- Jim Gallagher – 1986 (Hole 3)
- Brad Fabel – 1986 (Hole 17)
- Brian Claar – 1991 (Hole 17)
- Chip Beck – 1992 (Hole 13)
- Gary Hallberg – 1994 (Hole 8)
- Russ Cochran – 1994 (Hole 3)
- Phil Mickelson – 1995 (Hole 13)
- Jay Don Blake – 1996 (Hole 13)
- Fred Couples – 1997 (Hole 17)
- Mark Brooks – 1997 (Hole 8)
- Bob Friend – 1999 (Hole 8)
- Joey Sindelar – 1999 (Hole 17)
- Naomichi Ozaki – 2000 (Hole 8)
- Ted Tryba – 2000 (Hole 8)
- Paul Azinger – 2000 (Hole 17)
- Chris DiMarco – 2001 (Hole 3)
- Craig Stadler – 2002 (Hole 13)
- Miguel Angel Jimenez – 2002 (Hole 17)
- Jose Maria Olazabal – 2004 (Hole 13)
- Justin Leonard – 2006 (Hole 13)
- Henrick Stenson – 2006 (Hole 13)
- Fred Couples – 2006 (Hole 13)
- Robert Garrigus – 2008 (Hole 13)
- Chris Stroud – 2013 (Hole 13)
- Michael Thompson – 2013 (Hole 8)
- Will Wilcock – 2016 (Hole 17)
- Ryan Moore – 2019 (Hole 17)
- Sungjae Im – 2019 (Hole 13)
- Seamus Power – 2019 (Hole 3)
- Brendon Todd – 2021 (Hole 8)
- Viktor Hovland – 2022 (Hole 8)
- Shane Lowry – 2022 (Hole 17)
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There have been plenty of hole-in-ones over recent years, but that doesn’t mean the “yes” intrinsically has betting value. In fact, over the past 10 editions of the event, a hole-in-one has only occurred at five of them. That means the “yes” would have only cashed 50% of the time of the past 10 years.
With that being said, there may be value in betting it to happen on hole 17 specifically at +240. There have only been 12 combined hole-in-ones in the history of the event on holes No. 3 and 8.
So, what could be a fun strategy is to bet the “No hole-in-one” at almost +200, but then the “yes hole-in-one at Hole. 17” as a hedge. That way, we can cheer for an ace at the famous Island green, but if one doesn’t happen, we may still be a winner if we don’t see one at either of the three other par 3s.
Our main concern, which would be a disastrous result, would be an ace at the No. 13 hole, which has seen 12 total hole-in-ones over the years, and none at No. 17.
Regardless, I’m willing to have some fun with this bet. Let’s go for it.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.