Mar 14, 2022; Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida, USA; Champions trophy during the delayed final round of The Players Championship golf tournament at TPC Sawgrass. Mandatory Credit: David Yeazell-USA TODAY Sports
The unofficial fifth major of the PGA Tour season, The Players Championship, is here!
The best golfers on Tour descend upon TPC Sawgrass for this week’s big event, and I have picks to break down, but before I do I have one key thing you should keep in mind when deciding who to bet on.
That key stat is driving accuracy.
Dating back to 2015, the average difference in total score on a whole between those who miss and those who hit a fairway is 0.42 strokes. That’s the fourth biggest difference on the PGA Tour. That tells me that you should probably avoid golfers who are struggling in driving accuracy this season. We want golfers who are hitting fairways.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at the odds to win and then I’ll give you my best bets.
Odds to Win The Players Championship
The Players Championship best bet to win
Scottie Scheffler +1100
Despite Kurt Kityama’s win at last week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational, I’m still convinced that we have to bet on one of the big three, Scheffler, Jon Rahm, or Rory McIlroy, each week there’s an elevated event.
I’m going to go with Scheffler this time around because he thrives in one area that Rahm and McIlroy struggle in. You guessed it, driving accuracy. Heading into this week, Rahm ranks 119th in driving accuracy while Rory ranks 183rd. They can get away with that at most tournaments, but not at The Players.
Scottie ranks inside the top 55 in that stat while also leading the Tour in greens in regulation. I think he should be the favorite to win this week, and since he’s not, he’s a value bet despite being at just 11/1.
The Players Championship Top 5 bet
Collin Morikawa +450
Collin Morikawa missed the cut at last week’s tournament, but that just means we’re getting better value on him this week. Sure, he missed the cut in two of his last six starts, but the two times he didn’t miss the cut, he finished 6th, T6th, 3rd, and 2nd. Not too shabby.
Morikawa is also extremely accurate off the tee, ranking third in driving accuracy heading into this week.
The Players Championship Top 10 bet
Tyrrell Hatton +275
Not enough people are talking about how well Tyrrell Hatton has been playing lately. Here is how he has finished in his last seven worldwide starts:
- CJ Cup – T13
- DP World Tour Championship – T2
- Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship – T7
- Hero Dubai Classic – T38
- Phoenix Open – T6
- Genesis Invitational – T40
- Arnold Palmer Invitational – T4
That’s four top 10 finishes in his last seven worldwide starts, and a T13 on top of it. Why not bet on that trend to continue?
It’s also worth noting that he’s 16th in driving accuracy and eighth in total strokes gained this season.
The Players Championship Top 20 Bet
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +650
If you want a long shot bet this week, consider Christiaan Bezuidenhout at +650 to finish in the top 20. He is not a long driver of the golf ball, but that’s not going to hurt him too much this week. But, he’s an accurate driver, ranking 33rd in driving accuracy.
His short game is also usually strong. He ranks fifth in strokes gained: around-the-green, and he has gained strokes putting in two of his last three starts, which is hopefully a sign his putting is returning to its usual dominance.
However you want to bet on the South African, I think he’s a strong dark horse play this week.
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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
